Article by Jessica Johnson
Associate Editor
Back again is the Sawmill Operations and Capital Expenditure Survey report, compiled annually by Timber Processing, focusing on U.S. hardwood lumber mills. (The report on U.S. softwood lumber mills appeared in the June issue of TP.) The overarching theme for this year remains cautious optimism as the majority of responding hardwood lumbermen rate their business forecast as “good” or “excellent” for the remainder of 2017 and into 2018.
Let’s go back 10 years. A trip to the TP archives for the June 2008 survey—the one held arguably right as the entire bottom fell out— found that 32.9% of hardwood lumbermen said the lumber market situation the year before (2007) was the worst they’d ever seen. But that didn’t stop them from holding on to a little cautious optimism for 2008 and beyond, as the chart on this page indicates.
Knowing back then the picture might not be too pretty, we had asked lumbermen to forecast their business for the remainder of the decade, basically 2008 and 2009. The 80 respondents to the 2008 survey weren’t as grouchy as one would have assumed. Their cautious optimism shone through like a rainbow after a thunderstorm. Or perhaps their cautious optimism was due to the answer choices to the forecasting question, which gave them ample opportunity to be upbeat. Hey, we were desperately looking for a silver lining.
Looking at the markets for 2008 and 2009, 39.3% chose the “sunshine” options that correlate, we think, with good or excellent. That was pretty impressive, and optimistic, considering the dark clouds of the times.
And if 2017’s survey shows anything, it’s that they were right. It was bad for a while, but plenty of sunshine came right on through: Today 59% of respondents say the hardwood lumber business outlook is good, while 7% say it is excellent. Last time we checked, 59+7=66, which means two-thirds are upbeat. When was the last time two-thirds of hardwood lumbermen have felt good?
As Little Orphan Annie sang, “The sun’ll come out tomorrow. Bet your bottom dollar that tomorrow, there’ll be sun! Just thinkin’ about tomorrow clears away the cobwebs, and the sorrow ‘til there’s none!”